The Cat's Cradle

"No wonder kids grow up crazy. A cat's cradle is nothing but a bunch of X's between somebody's hands, and little kids look and look and look at all those X's . . . No damn cat, no damn cradle." -- Kurt Vonnegut

Friday, February 09, 2007

Does winning matter for Hall of Fame Induction (part 3)?

(see part 1 and part 2 in previous posts)

Of the major league players in the hall of fame, the two with the lowest predicted probability of enshrinement are Willard Brown and Monte Irvin, both of whom spent the majority of their careers in the Negro Leagues. Because their major league statistics are not the basis for their induction they were dropped from regressions and do not appear in the table below.

Based on its performance, I have elected to drop model 2 and only report the two specifications that use adjusted linear weights. The table reports players for whom one of the models predicts lower than a 15% chance of induction.

Professor Bradbury declined to post his version of these results for fear of upsetting people. Perhaps I should have posted anonymously – I hope to be on the job market soon.

The fact that Mazeroski fares so poorly is not, to me, evidence that he does not belong. Instead I think it reflects the lack of quality defensive statistics. The other thing that stands out is the value of having been immortalized in verse (though Johnny Evers fared much better with scores of 66.4% and 82.9%).

Prob. Of Induction
Name endyr position Model 1 Model 3
Bill Mazeroski19722B1.4%1.1%
Tommy McCarthy1896OF2.1%4.3%
Chick Hafey1937OF2.8%2.9%
Freddie Lindstrom19363B3.4%3.4%
Kirby Puckett1995OF4.2%3.7%
George Kelly19321B4.2%4.6%
Ross Youngs1926OF4.3%21.7%
Red Schoendienst19632B4.9%8.9%
Frank Chance19141B7.5%37.2%
King Kelly1893OF8.6%21.0%
Jimmy Collins19083B8.8%6.9%
Hack Wilson1934OF11.4%14.1%
Joe Tinker1916SS13.8%44.4%
Ray Schalk1929C14%25.3%
Earle Combs1935OF14.3%54.2%
George Kell19573B19.7%11.6%
Richie Ashburn1962OF32.0%13.6%
Ralph Kiner1955OF32.4%6.3%


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