Does winning matter for Hall of Fame Induction (part 3)?

(see part 1 and part 2 in previous posts)

Of the major league players in the hall of fame, the two with the lowest predicted probability of enshrinement are Willard Brown and Monte Irvin, both of whom spent the majority of their careers in the Negro Leagues. Because their major league statistics are not the basis for their induction they were dropped from regressions and do not appear in the table below.

Based on its performance, I have elected to drop model 2 and only report the two specifications that use adjusted linear weights. The table reports players for whom one of the models predicts lower than a 15% chance of induction.

Professor Bradbury declined to post his version of these results for fear of upsetting people. Perhaps I should have posted anonymously – I hope to be on the job market soon.

The fact that Mazeroski fares so poorly is not, to me, evidence that he does not belong. Instead I think it reflects the lack of quality defensive statistics. The other thing that stands out is the value of having been immortalized in verse (though Johnny Evers fared much better with scores of 66.4% and 82.9%).

			Prob. Of Induction
Name	endyr	position	Model 1	Model 3
Bill Mazeroski	1972	2B	1.4%	1.1%
Tommy McCarthy	1896	OF	2.1%	4.3%
Chick Hafey	1937	OF	2.8%	2.9%
Freddie Lindstrom	1936	3B	3.4%	3.4%
Kirby Puckett	1995	OF	4.2%	3.7%
George Kelly	1932	1B	4.2%	4.6%
Ross Youngs	1926	OF	4.3%	21.7%
Red Schoendienst	1963	2B	4.9%	8.9%
Frank Chance	1914	1B	7.5%	37.2%
King Kelly	1893	OF	8.6%	21.0%
Jimmy Collins	1908	3B	8.8%	6.9%
Hack Wilson	1934	OF	11.4%	14.1%
Joe Tinker	1916	SS	13.8%	44.4%
Ray Schalk	1929	C	14%	25.3%
Earle Combs	1935	OF	14.3%	54.2%
George Kell	1957	3B	19.7%	11.6%
Richie Ashburn	1962	OF	32.0%	13.6%
Ralph Kiner	1955	OF	32.4%	6.3%